Премьер министр Канады

[Stjernberg]

Font, да, непонятно но наверняка есть какие то правила. хотя вроде ж лидер партии при проигрыше уходит с поста? Как было при Шире.

[Font]

Stjernberg, я уже у грока спросил


Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative Party of Canada leader, lost his Carleton riding to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy in the April 28, 2025, federal election, ending his nearly 20-year tenure as an MP. Despite this, he has signaled his intent to remain party leader, citing the Conservatives’ gains of approximately 20 seats and a popular vote of around 41.4%. However, losing his seat complicates his political path. Here’s what’s next for Poilievre based on recent developments and political realities:

Immediate Challenges
No Seat in Parliament: Without a seat, Poilievre cannot participate in House of Commons activities, such as Question Period or voting, which weakens his ability to lead the opposition effectively. This makes it awkward for him to remain leader without a swift return to Parliament.
Party Leadership Questions: While Poilievre enjoys strong grassroots support and delivered the Conservatives’ best result since 2011 (approximately 144 seats), losing his own seat is a significant setback. The Conservative caucus could theoretically remove him, as seen with predecessors Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole, who faced internal pressure after election losses. However, Poilievre’s stronger mandate and popularity among Alberta and Saskatchewan MPs may shield him from immediate ousting.

Likely Next Steps
By-Election Strategy: To return to Parliament, Poilievre could seek a seat through a by-election in a safe Conservative riding, likely in Alberta or Saskatchewan, where the party has strong support. A Conservative MP-elect could step aside to allow Poilievre to run, a common practice in parliamentary systems. Posts on X and news reports suggest this is a widely expected move, with some predicting he could secure a seat within months.
Party Leadership Vote: Poilievre will likely need to secure formal approval from the Conservative caucus or membership to continue as leader, possibly within weeks. His strong performance in seat gains and popular vote (41% vs. Liberals’ 43%) could bolster his case, but the loss of his seat and the party’s failure to capitalize on earlier polling leads may fuel dissent. If he retains leadership, he’ll focus on holding the Liberal minority government accountable, especially on issues like U.S. trade tariffs under President Donald Trump.
Rebuilding Strategy: Poilievre has acknowledged the need to learn from the election loss, particularly his slow response to Trump’s trade threats, which allowed Liberal leader Mark Carney to capitalize on anti-Trump sentiment. He may shift his messaging to address economic concerns, trade, and national unity while distancing himself from perceptions of “Trump-style” politics, which some voters rejected. His campaign’s demographic breakthroughs, including support from younger Canadians, could be a foundation for future growth.

Potential Risks
Internal Party Division: If Poilievre’s leadership is challenged, figures like Ontario Premier Doug Ford could emerge as rivals, though no clear alternative leader has been named.
Public Perception: Losing his seat to a relatively unknown Liberal candidate, coupled with criticism of his “divisive” style, may damage his image as a prime minister-in-waiting. The electoral reform protest in Carleton, with 90 independent candidates, also highlighted local dissatisfaction.
Minority Government Dynamics: With the Liberals projected to form a minority government (approximately 162 seats), Poilievre must navigate a delicate balance of opposing Carney’s policies while avoiding another snap election, which could further weaken the Conservatives if public sentiment remains unfavorable.

Long-Term Outlook
If Poilievre secures a new seat and retains leadership, he could position himself for the next federal election, potentially in 2027 or sooner if the Liberal minority government falls. His focus on affordability, resource development, and reducing government spending resonates in Western Canada, and he may leverage Alberta’s frustration with Carney’s policies, such as carbon taxes, to build momentum. Some analysts and X posts predict he could become prime minister in a future election, especially if economic conditions worsen under Carney. However, he must address criticisms of his campaign’s inflexibility and broaden his appeal to counter Carney’s narrative of unity against external threats like Trump’s tariffs.

Conclusion
Poilievre’s immediate priority is regaining a parliamentary seat via a by-election, likely in a Conservative stronghold, while securing his leadership through party approval. His ability to adapt his messaging, unify the party, and capitalize on Liberal vulnerabilities will determine his viability as a future prime ministerial candidate. Despite the setback, his strong voter base and the Conservatives’ electoral gains suggest he remains a formidable force, but the road ahead requires strategic recalibration.

[Antoxa]

Ну где же мессер с его подборкой разрыва консервных пуканов их ютуба

Да ладно ютьюб, тут на форуме как минимум два разорвало

[Clyde]

Его в парламент то хоть пустят?

Могут только на балкончик пустить, чтоб он сверху наблюдал. Говорить в Парламенте он не сможет. Но вряд ли он откажется от власти и уйдет в отставку. И какой-то оппозиции ему внутри партии пока не видно. Я думаю какого-нибудь консерватора из Калгари/Альберты попросят отказаться от мандата и объявят by-elections, чтобы Пьер избрался от Альберты. Путь через Оттаву ему заказан.

[Stjernberg]

Antoxa, вот на надо на чужие пуканы облизываться.
Лучше скажите мне - это уже "сменяемость власти" или еще нет?

[Clyde]

Лучше скажите мне - это уже "сменяемость власти" или еще нет?

Либералы победили на честных выборах. Какие претензии у тебя?

[Takemecanada]

Так вроде еще не на 100% посчитали голоса. Сейчас либералы могут еще большинство взять

[Antoxa]

вот на надо на чужие пуканы облизываться.

Кто о чем, а вшивый о бане.

Лучше скажите мне - это уже "сменяемость власти" или еще нет?

Честные выборы. Безусловно.

[Stjernberg]

Честные выборы. Безусловно.

Ну так сменилась власть или нет? В честности подсчетов я пока еще не сомневаюсь.

[Antoxa]

Ну так сменилась власть или нет?

Конечно, народ выбрал другого премьера.

[Clyde]

Так вы на округа посмотрите. Оба два - центр Калгари. Контингент-с...
И гляньте на распределение голосов в остальных, особенно rural Alberta.

Один в Калгари, один в Эдмонтоне. Тем не менее, более трети избирателей в Альберте проголосовали за Либералов и NDP. Если бы не система FPTP, они бы получили примерно 12 мандатов из 37 от Альберты.

[gzn]

Конечно, народ выбрал другого премьера.

в Канаде народ не участвует в выборах премьера.

[Stjernberg]

Конечно, народ выбрал другого премьера.

"другого" это как? кто был премьером до 28 апреля?
и- да. народ не выбирает премьеров.

[Takemecanada]

Ох уж этот Антон. Когда удобно, то придирается к словам, а когда неудобно, то извивается и не отвечает на вопрос

[Stjernberg]

2000 год: Ельцина меняют на Путина.
Антоха: ииииии операция "Преемник"! диктаторы! кровавая гэбня!
2025 год: Трюдо меняют на Карни.
Антоха: ооооо сменяемость власти! честные выборы! народ избрал нового премьера!

Отправлено спустя 55 секунд:

Ох уж этот Антон. Когда удобно, то придирается к словам, а когда неудобно, то извивается и не отвечает на вопрос

его девичья фамилия- Песков